With only 18 days until the election, most of the state has already made up their minds. Cygnal, a Montgomery based consulting firm, recently conducted an independent flash poll that painted a pretty clear picture of how November 4 will turn out.
Our firm conducted an independent flash poll of statewide races for the November 4, 2014, general election. The survey was completed across three days - October 13-15 - and we screened respondents for likelihood of voting. The population universe was selected based on an estimated electorate compromised of 1,434,539 voters that have a propensity to vote in the general election. Since 807 people qualified to respond and completed the survey, the flash poll has a 3.45% margin of error. Live calls to cell-phone-only voters were included as part of the sample proportional to the % they compromise of the electorate.
Governors Race:
- Bentley (R) - 57%
- Griffith (D) - 35.7%
- Undecided - 7.4%
Lt. Governor:
- Ivey (R) - 52.5%
- Fields (D) - 36.6%
- Undecided - 10.8%
Secretary of State:
- Merrilll (R) - 53.2%
- Albert-Kaigler (D) - 33.1%
- Undecided - 13.7%
Auditor:
- Zeigler (R) - 52.4%
- Joseph (D) - 35%
- Undecided - 12.6%
Ag Commissioner:
- McMillan (R) - 55.1%
- Smith (D) - 33.4%
- Undecided - 11.5%
Straight Ticket:
Definite Republican - 26.2%
Probable Republican - 14.6%
Definite Democrat - 22.1%
Probable Democrat - 6.1%
No Straight Ticket - 31.0%
Voter Trends:
Likely Republican - 59.8%
Likely Democrat - 33.0 %
Independent - 7.2%
Highlights:
- Alabama voters age 18-34 are most likely to vote a straight party ticket, with 64 % saying it would be Republican
- 53 % would definitely vote for a lottery and 13% said they would "probably support a lottery". Only 30% said they would either definitely vote against or probably vote against a lottery, meaning an Alabama lottery may be near.
- 4.6% of Alabamians said they were "very liberal" and 9.9% said they were "somewhat liberal." A massive 59.3% said they were either very or somewhat conservative.
- A turnout of less than 41% is expected with no specific demographic having a strong interest in the 2014 Election.
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