The New Year’s celebrations have ceased, the champagne bottles have been popped, and the confetti has been cleaned up. Now its time to look ahead to the new year that awaits. The first political event of the year, January 19, 2015, is the inauguration of the state’s constitutional officers who were elected in November: Governor; Lt. Governor; Attorney General; Secretary of State; State Treasurer; State Auditor; and Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries. All Republican. Not one elected Democrat will be on the inaugural platform.
The oaths of office will hardly be completed before speculation will begin on who will be seeking these positions in 2018. Alabama’s term limits law prohibits its constitutional officers from serving more than two consecutive terms. Entering their second term, the Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer and Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries will not be able to succeed themselves in 2018.
Republicans will have a deep bench to draw from for these, and other, offices in 2018. We will have had a super majority in both the House and Senate for 8 years by the time the election comes around again. So, we will have plenty of well-qualified Republican candidates seeking higher office in 2018. Many of these legislators will be positioning themselves over these next four years for what will be the biggest and most competitive Republican primary ever in Alabama.
>>>Of course, all of the candidates will not come from the legislature. We have some ambitious and well-qualified Representatives in Congress who might decide to come home and run for statewide office. And, then there are those constitutional officers who are termed out of their current office. Will they go home or will they run for another office?
Republican political consultants must be salivating as they look forward to the 2018 elections, because there will be no shortage of candidates. You might even see some traditionally Democrat operatives changing their colors over the next four years so they can find work in 2018. With a bleak outlook for Democrat statewide candidates, their pickings will be slim.
It is hard to imagine a serious Democrat winning a statewide office in 2018. They have little to no bench in the legislature. They hold no statewide offices from which to draw. And, there is only one Democrat in Congress from Alabama.
But, that’s 2018! What about 2015? There are no scheduled elections in 2015, but chances are there will be a few special elections if history repeats itself. During the last four years several legislators have resigned during their term, requiring the governor to call a special election. If this continues, we could see some special elections in 2015 to fill vacancies in the legislature. But, other than this possibility, don’t expect to be going to the polls in 2015.
We are, however, likely to see some campaigning in the coming year. Candidates seeking to run in 2016 will have to begin campaigning before the end of the year, because the primary next year will come much sooner than normal. The 2016 primaries are scheduled for the second Tuesday in March, which is only 14 months from now. The primaries in a presidential election year are in March rather than June in order to provide Alabama voters an opportunity to participate in the presidential nominating process.
The presidential candidates will not be the only ones on the ballot February 2016. All state and local candidates will also be on the ballot in March. The U.S. Senate seat held by Richard Shelby will be on the ballot along with three Supreme Court races, one Appeals Court race and President of the PSC. Three state Board of Education offices will also be on the ballot. There will be a number of local offices on the ballot in 2016, but the most high profile will be that of District Attorney.
Based on the early 2016 primary, 2015 might not be such a dull political year after all. Expect to see and hear from a number of possible Republican presidential candidates as they come to campaign in Alabama over the next year. The first one scheduled to appear in Alabama is U.S. Sen. Rand Paul. He will be the keynote speaker for the ALGOP Victory Celebration Dinner in Montgomery on February 20th. As one of the leading possible Republican candidates for President, Sen. Paul will no doubt generate a lot of excitement when he comes to Alabama next month.
Tickets can be purchased online or by calling 205-212-5900.
By Bill Armistead, Chairman of the Alabama Republican Party
