By Tyler Pruett

tyler@southerntorch.com

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, upsetting predicted GOP winner Donald Trump who just narrowly edged out Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for second place.

“Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation,” Cruz exclaimed to supporters as final votes were counted Monday night and his victory in Iowa secured.

The first signs appeared tonight that Trump may be vulnerable despite commanding leads in months past in countless national polls leading up to the first real showdown of the 2016 presidential race in Iowa on Monday. Trump barely managed to hold off Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who surged late in the polls as votes were counted Monday evening, resulting in Trump narrowly defeating Rubio to claim second place in the Iowa caucus.

“This is no ordinary election,” Rubio told supporters. “Our performance tonight in Iowa is an important step towards winning this election.” Rubio emerges from Iowa as the candidate to watch as the 2016 battle for president wages on toward the next stop in New Hampshire.

With 94 percent of the vote in at 11 p.m. Monday night, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were neck-and-neck as the final votes were counted. Around midday on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton was declared the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses, according to final results from the Democratic Party. In a narrow victory, Clinton received 49.9 percent of the vote to Sanders 49.6 percent.

Immediately following the Iowa caucuses, the field narrowed on both sides, as the Monday vote assessed candidate viability for the first time in the 2016 election cycle. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee ended his second bid for the Republican nomination; winning the very same Iowa caucuses in 2008. As of print, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul as well as former Senator Rick Santorum had also announced their decisions to conclude their campaigns. The Democrats, who have enjoyed a much less crowded field thus far, saw the exit of former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, who failed to reach viability in a single Iowa precinct.

In the aftermath to what many would call upsets among both parties, the “front running” candidates have been left on the defensive. Real estate mogul Donald Trump, who was largely favored in polling, seemed humbled in his post-caucus remarks, but was quick to vent his frustrations with his opponents the following day. In a speech to supporters in New Hampshire, Trump accused Cruz of dishonesty, and explained his reasoning as, “he lies, he lies because he’s from Canada.”

One crucial factor for achieving success following the Iowa caucuses is momentum. A strong performance in Iowa is critical, however, historically the winner of Iowa rarely wins the nomination. Typically, candidates exhibiting the most momentum will eventually win the nomination. A good example is the momentum of a football game. If the score in the third quarter is 42 - 35, but the trailing team has scored three unanswered touchdowns with the most recent being a pick-six, most would anticipate that the trailing team will continue scoring and finish on top. Rubio and Sanders represent the trailing team in this scenario. While neither won in Iowa, both managed to finish with almost double the amount of support shown in some of the most recent polling data. This indicates they are swaying more last minute decision makers and bleeding support from their respective opponents.

On Tuesday, Feb. 9, voters will go to the polls in the first conventional primary of the nomination process in New Hampshire. Strong advantages are shown in polling for Trump on the Republican ticket and Sanders for the Democratic Party, according to Real Clear Politics. Both seem to benefit from being geographically located near New Hampshire, as well as a large anti-establishment movement thats home to the granite state. Although it’s noteworthy that Iowa did not turn out as the polls portrayed. New Hampshire is also home to many moderate Republican voters that may trend towards Rubio who is also enjoying much of the momentum. On the Democratic side, Sanders possesses strong polling numbers, as well as the momentum of a strong Iowa performance. Be sure to stay tuned as the Southern Torch brings you updates and analysis throughout the 2016 elections!