By Tyler Pruett

tyler@southerntorch.com

Almost nine weeks has passed since the first caucus goers cast their votes in Iowa, kicking-off the presidential nomination process. Since, the Republican field has narrowed significantly, while the Democratic focus remains on Clinton and Sanders. Clinton leads Sanders by 701 delegates in the overall count, while only needing a further 671 delegates to secure the nomination. In the Republican race, however, no candidate has a crystal-clear path to the 1237 delegates needed.

Trump rallies get even more controversial

Earlier this month, a Donald Trump for President rally was cancelled in Chicago due to violence between supporters and protesters. This led to even more media scrutiny and controversy over the volatile atmosphere of the real estate tycoon’s events. Shortly after, a protester was punched at a North Carolina rally while being escorted out by police officers. The assailant was charged with assault and on Tuesday, Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski was arrested for allegedly assaulting former Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields at a Florida rally. In the immediate aftermath, Trump’s campaign went on the defensive, telling a crowd at a Wisconsin rally that Fields had fallen and Lewandowski simply helped her. Later that same day, Trump would tell CNN’s Anderson Cooper in a live interview that the reporter had grabbed him in a threatening manner, and his campaign manager was protecting him. The Jupiter Florida Police Department released the security footage showing what appears to be Lewandowski grabbing Fields.

Kasich and Rubio seek to block Trump

While the Republican Convention isn’t until mid-July, strategies are already being carried out to deny Trump the clear nomination. Most notably, former Ohio Governor John Kasich remains in the race, despite having only 143 delegates. While there is not even a remote mathematical possibility of Kasich earning enough to clinch the nomination, his campaign for president continues to deny as many delegates as possible to the front-runner. By staying in the race, it will prohibit his share of delegates from going to Trump. While Senator Marco Rubio, who suspended his bid for president after coming up short in Florida, has been actively lobbying his earned delegates to remain loyal at the convention in order to ensure Trump falls short. While no longer in the race, a “suspended” campaign can still retain their delegates at the convention.

States deciding in April

While much of the month of April seems slow in terms of states holding elections, several key states will go to the polls. April 26 is the most significant date, with five states along the east coast heading to the polls. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island will be casting ballots simultaneously. It’s difficult to forecast how the political winds might blow over the next few weeks, but Wisconsin’s primary will be held next week on April 5. The most recent polling data shows Senator Ted Cruz with a commanding lead of over ten percent in Wisconsin, while Bernie Sanders is narrowly beating Clinton.

Controversy is the only certainty

2016 has proven to been unprecedented in terms of division, and media attention. While American are accustomed to being dividing along party lines during election years, never before has such division existed among the major parties. This will only increase as we creep slowly towards November, as more and more Americans become engaged. While it seems that the whole country is already embroiled with the nomination, the majority of voters won’t be involved with the process until the conventions. And while we are accustomed to having a clear nominee by the time July arrives, it’s unlikely that the GOP convention will be that simple. The establishment is seeking to deny Trump the nomination no matter what the final delegate count. While he remains the clear front-runner, it’s likely that the delegates controlled by Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich will be enough to deny him the required 1237. Whatever the result of a “contested” convention, the only certainty is that it will leave the Republican party even more divided going into November.